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Month ahead and long range weather forecasts

Terry Scholey Weather Forecasts

Monthly weather forecasts from weather forecaster Terry Scholey.

New forecasts twice a month on the 1st and 15th. Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.

Terry Scholey Month Ahead Forecasts

rape seed and blue sky

Mid-April to Mid-May 2014

General Comments:

The current thirty day period is expected to be somewhat drier than normal in most places, despite unsettled intervals. It should also be somewhat warmer average in central and southern areas, with temperatures probably closer to normal over Scotland and in the north east.

The April forecast is going well, despite some computer model predictions of a cooler than normal first half of April. Some models last week even produced a very cold scenario, prompting a national newspaper to print a report of possible snow for Easter, but take these with 'a pinch of salt'. Typical mean average maximum temperatures for the current forecast period are 12 to 15C in the north and 14 to 17C in the south. The mean minimum temperature is about 4 to 6C in the north and 6 to 8C in the south. Confidence is high for the rest of April and medium to high into the first half of May.

Period Breakdowns:

April 16th to 20th: Fine and sunny at first, with warm afternoons but some cold nights may give ground frost. Weakening fronts moving down from the north bring showers to Scotland and some other northern areas for a time, while central and southern parts stay mainly dry although become somewhat colder by day. The Easter break should begin mainly dry with sunny spells, although cloud amounts may vary.

April 21st to 25th: Scotland, most of Ireland and the north west should continue mainly dry with sunny spells for the remainder of Easter but elsewhere, there will be more cloud at times and the increasing threat of showers. These could become more widespread later spreading to most parts, perhaps giving some heavy bursts of rain in the east and south possibly with local thunder. A cold wind will develop especially in central and eastern areas, with lower temperatures as a result.

April 26th to 30th: Showers particularly in the north and east should give way to drier, brighter conditions with eventually, good spells of sunshine developing especially in central and southern parts. After some chilly nights to begin with, it becomes warmer particularly towards month end when 20C may be reached in favoured locations.

May 1st to 8th: Although probably beginning fine and warm in the east and south, the first week of May promised to be unsettled. Showers and some longer spells of rain are expected with often large amounts of cloud, but there will also be drier, brighter intervals most likely in the south. Temperatures should be close to or somewhat below normal particularly in the north and north and north east, with the south and east perhaps seeing a few warmer days where the sun comes through.

May 9th to 12th: Pressure should rise giving a finer and increasingly warm interval. Sunny periods could make it warm or even very warm for a while, with temperatures perhaps reaching the low twenties Celsius in places on some afternoons. Some chilly nights are also possible though, still with the risk of ground frost in vulnerable locations and in the north.

May 13th to 15th: A change to much cooler, unsettled conditions seem likely, as the fine spell probably breaks down into showers. These could be heavy over parts of England giving local thunder, with perhaps a cold wind developing especially in central and eastern areas. Elsewhere it may be somewhat brighter with fewer showers, with the best of any sunny intervals most likely over West Scotland, where it could still turn cold enough at night for a touch of ground frost in sheltered glens.

15th April 2014

April 2014

General Comments:

Although beginning and probably ending somewhat unsettled April should be drier and warmer than average particularly in the south and west. With winds from an easterly quarter in the mix however, there are always forecasting problems at this time of year for a couple of reasons:

Firstly the origins of the east winds and subsequent air mass will be critical. During these times there can be stark temperature contrasts between south and west and north and east.

Secondly there is some uncertainty as to the positioning of the high pressure around mid-month. I suspect however that a broad ridge will be in close proximity to the British Isle's, giving some warm day's but probably some chilly night's for a while.

Mean max temperature in the north is about 10C rising to 12.5C and in the south 12C rising to about 14.5C. The mean min temperature in the north is 2.5 rising to around 4C and in the south 4.5C rising to around 7.5C by month end. While the overall scenario should show a fair amount of success because of the placement problems discussed above, confidence in this predication has been reduced to medium.


April 1st to 4th: Rather cold and dull at times over east Scotland and parts of north-east England but otherwise warmer than average but not entirely settled. Intervals of hazy sunshine will give some warm afternoons once morning mist has cleared perhaps lifting temperatures to 20C to 22C over parts of southern England. Quite large amounts of cloud at times however will give showers particularly in the west, with sporadic thunder probably more widespread later.

April 5th to 11th: Unsettled with occasional rain and breezier for a time, but this should clear mist and murk. Despite the changeable conditions the east and south may continue to see intervals of finer, warmer weather, particular around 8th or 9th. Later it may turn somewhat colder from the north.

April 12th to 18th: This should be the driest period with high pressure expected to dominate. This will give some fine, warm weather, particularly towards Good Friday, when temperatures could exceed 20C once more in places. However, we also have the scenario of high pressure displaced somewhat to the north, in which case eastern areas would be cooler for a while with variable cloud perhaps giving a few showers towards the south-east. Chilly nights could give ground frost especially at first.

April 19th to 23rd: Although probably fine and warm on Easter Saturday and Sunday, in generally light winds a hic-cup could give scattered showers. While not everyone will catch one, should you do so it could be heavy, perhaps locally with thunder. Mainly dry weather with sunny spells should return from around Eater Monday, but the trend should be for northern and eastern areas in particular to begin to turn cooler, where a few showers may return later.

April 24th to 26th: A brief much colder period is possible with occasional rain or showers, particularly in central and eastern areas. There could even be hill snow in the north for a while, before a ridge probably from a Greenland High begins to build across the country later. This may bring an improvement, particularly to western areas, but where skies clear at night there could be ground or even a touch of air frost.

April 27th to 30th: A quieter, finer end to April is expected to give sunny spells but cloud amounts may vary. It should also become warmer, although the nights may be chilly to begin with. Although probably mainly dry showers could move into Ireland and perhaps some other western and south-western areas later. These could be heavy.

1st April

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012