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30 Day Weather Forecasts from terry Scholey

Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

30 Day Weather Forecast posted twice a month on the 1st and 15th.

Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.

early september morning

September 2014 Forecast

General Comments:

High pressure mostly to the north should dominate particularly the first half of September giving a mainly dry month. Around the equinox it may turn more unsettled from the west, but despite this, parts of western Scotland could end up having a very dry period. The south and east of England will at times be subject to showers, with the uncertain track of depression due around mid-September, perhaps bringing a spell of wetter weather to more southern area's.

Warm Septembers often occur close to solar maximum but as the current cycle is weak this seem's unlikely, but there are a few exceptions. So while probably seeing a fair few pleasantly warm afternoons the night may turn out to be chilly with ground frost, most likely around mid-month particularly in the north.

Finally but surprisingly not unusual for September, it may be that the highest temperatures occur sometime in the final week, when a change to a more southerly flow is possible.

Confidence generally for the sequence of events is medium to high, but less so for mid-month and the final week of September.

Summary Breakdown:

September 1st to around 13th or 14th: Although beginning cloudy, misty and drizzly over parts of England, a slow rise in pressure settle's things down. Cloud amounts vary, but sunny spells give warm, locally very warm afternoons particularly over west Scotland, parts of Ireland and in the west. Light breeze's mostly from the north or north-east bring cloud and somewhat cooler conditions at times to the east and south, where showers will occasionally break out. Not everywhere will see them but where you do, these could be heavy locally with a risk of thunder mostly between 7th and 10th.

Maximum temperatures should mostly be between 15 and 21C, but perhaps up to 24C at times in some sheltered western areas. Minimum temperatures across the Midlands and in the south should be in the range 8 to 13C. Over the North and West of Scotland however where skies stay clear, some sheltered glens could fall to between say 1 to 4C giving ground frost. Some mist and patchy fog is also possible.

Around September 14th to 17th: Probably staying mainly dry and fine over Scotland, Northern Ireland and over much of Northern England but elsewhere, there is the threat of a brief unsettled spell particularly in the south. Here some heavy rain is possible, depending on the track of an Atlantic depression or low pressure on the nearby Continent. There could also be a cooling trend, with the risk of ground frost in the north where skies stay clear overnight. Top temperatures say 13 to 18C, with minimum values say 6 to 11C in the south and 1 to 5C in the north.

Around September 18th to 22nd: Could see a return of mainly dry weather in most parts, with generally light winds. There should be sunny spells by day perhaps giving warmer afternoons particularly later. There may be some cold nights for a while though especially in central and northern areas with further ground frost. Top temperatures 12 to 18C rising to say 14 to 21C. Minimum temperatures could be as low as -1C to +5C, but probably 4 to 9C by the end of the period.

September 23rd to 26th: Has the potential to be the wettest part of the month, as probably turns more generally unsettled from the west. There could be some heavy rain over Ireland and in the west where gales are possible for a time. The east and south may be less wet, but with milder nights in most parts. Maximum temperatures between 13 to 19C, with minimum values eventually between say 7 to 13C.

September 27th to 30th: Could see a transient ridge of high pressure giving a drier, brighter interval particularly in the south, but there will probably be a north west/south east split by the end of September. This could bring occasional rain or showers to most of Scotland, Ireland and the north and west of England, with the driest, brightest weather in the east and south. It should be pleasantly mild though, with top temperatures 13 to 16C in the north and west and 16 to 19C in the south and east. Minimum temperatures should remain in the range 8 to 13C.

31st August 2014

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012