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30 Day Weather Forecasts from terry Scholey

Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

30 Day Weather Forecast posted twice a month on the 1st and 15th. Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.

crowded beach on a hot day

Mid-July to Mid-August 2014

General Comments:

Despite being unsettled at times over the next thirty days or so with cooler intervals, it should continue to be warmer than average. In line with the July prediction, heat and humidity will build over the next few days. This will eventually lead to a thundery breakdown, to highlight the changeable nature of the period in what has been a decent summer to date.

Most of us would probably assume the longer the distance ahead, the more difficult a forecast becomes, but this is not always the case. For example a fine spell commencing around the 9th August is currently quite strongly indicated, while the final week of July and into the first few days of August remains somewhat of a forecasting headache. As a result, confidence for this period is reduced.


July 16th to 21st: Scotland, Ireland and northern and western areas have occasional rain or showers, but it will be quite warm. It will also be breezier here at first, but finer later albeit briefly. The east and south although mixed to begin with, see sunny spells. It turns increasingly hot and humid, with heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading from the south.

These give local torrential downpours causing 'flash' flooding'. Temperatures could reach 27 to 32C in the east and south, before it becomes cooler and fresher during the weekend. Over Scotland and Ireland, top temps should be 17 to 22C. Some warm 'sticky' nights with minimum values 14 to 20C, before falling later to between 11 and 15C.

July 22nd to 27th: Improving, but cooler and unsettled to begin with. It should become drier and brighter giving sunny spells especially in the south, but probably with variable cloud. As a result it should not be as warm as before, but top temperatures of 21 to 25C in the south and 17 to 21C in the north will make it quite pleasant in the sunshine. Minimum temperatures should be in the range 10 to 16C.

July 28th to 2nd August: Some drier, brighter intervals, with perhaps the west of Scotland and Ireland eventually seeing the best of these, but it should be mostly unsettled. Occasional rain or showers seem likely some heavy, with perhaps local thunder and gusty winds. Probably warmer and slightly humid briefly, but turning cooler again particularly perhaps along north and east facing coasts. Top temperatures should be 15 to 23C, with minimum values between say 9 and 14C.

August 3rd to 5th: Should see somewhat of an improvement, with fewer showers. The best of the sunny spells on offer will probably be in the south and south west, but most parts may continue to see variable amounts of cloud. Temperatures should be close to or slightly above normal, reaching 17 to 24C by day and falling to between 10 and 16C overnight.

August 6th to 8th: Increasingly unsettled and windy from the north west. Scotland and Ireland may see rain, followed by brighter weather with scattered showers. England and Wales should also turn unsettled in perhaps humid conditions for a while. Temperatures could reach 26 or 27C in the east and south where some rain is also likely and perhaps a few heavier showers or storms for a while, before brighter, somewhat cooler fresher conditions move in from the north west. Top temperatures should be between 17 and 24C, with some very mild nights when the thermometer should not fall below 11 to 18C.

August 9th to 15th: A few showers in the north at first, but rising pressure should bring mainly dry, fine weather eventually to all parts. Sunny periods are expected lifting temperatures making it very warm particularly towards mid-August. Winds generally should be lighter, with perhaps a few early morning mist or fog patches forming in rural areas later. Maximum temperatures probably 16 to 23C, rising to 17 to 25C. Minimum temperatures should be mostly in the range 9 to 15C.

16th July 2014

July Forecast

General Comments:

The warming trend continues, with every month so far this year recording above average temperatures. July should be no exception, but will probably turn out to be rather mixed. The first twenty days or so should be drier than normal particularly in the south, although unsettled intervals are likely and it will occasionally be windy in the North and North West.

July is often dominated by winds between West and North. These bring variable amounts of cloud and showers, mostly to northern and eastern areas and as a result, the best weather is usually in the South and South West during these times 'Cut-off' anticyclones however can also give very warm summery spells, most likely this year between the 13th and 20th.

By around the 20th it could have become very warm even hot in places but thereafter, the weather has a much more unsettled look about it. There could be some heavy rain particularly over England and Wales, with thunderstorms giving local torrential downpours that may cause 'flash' flooding. Confidence is medium to high.


July 1st to 4th: A few showers at first and some rain over Scotland, Northern Ireland and in the North West later, otherwise mainly dry. Cloud amounts vary, but there will also be sunny periods with some very warm afternoons developing in the East and South. Top temperatures 16 to 25C, with minimum value mostly in the range 9 to 15C.

July 5th to 7th: More generally unsettled and cooler, but probably warm towards the South East at first, where a few heavy, perhaps thundery showers are possible as the weather breaks down. Most places have some rain or showers, with perhaps gusty winds in the North and North East later. Maximum temperatures fall to say 14 to 19C, with minimum values around 8 to 12C after some mild nights at first.

July 8th to 12th: Should see a typical spell of July weather as described above. It should be mainly dry, but variable cloud may give a few showers in the North and East at first, with the best of the sunny spells in the South and over southern parts of Ireland. Top temperatures say 17 to 22C. Minimum temperatures 9 to 14C.

July 13th to 21st: Probably a continuation of the typical July weather, but there is the scope here for 'cut-off' highs giving summery weather. One is possible around the 13th that could result in a brief humid interval followed by scattered heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. More likely though is a summery spell between about the 18th and 21st, that could result in a heatwave later. Maximum temperatures 17 to 22C rising to 21 to 29C in any summer weather later. Minimum temperatures should be between 10 and 15C, but perhaps as high as 12 to 19C later.

July 22nd to 31st: A more detailed outlook will come in a fortnights time but at the moment, there are strong indications that this period like last year, could be particularly changeable Outbreaks of rain some heavy seem likely, with thunderstorms occasionally giving torrential downpours that may lead to localised 'flash' flooding. Although probably very warm and humid at first, the month could end on a much cooler note, with perhaps some wide variations in diurnal temperature beforehand. Top temperatures will probably be 17 to 25C falling to 13 to 18C, with minimum values between say 12 and 19C, falling to say 8 to 14C by month end.

1st July 2014

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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Terry Scholey FRMets

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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012