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30 Day Weather Forecasts from terry Scholey

Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

30 Day Weather Forecast posted twice a month on the 1st and 15th.

Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.

London snow

Latest autumn and coming winter thoughts

In the past few day's I have been looking at certain theories concerning autumn rainfall, as this September has been very dry. Previous very dry Septembers and Octobers did not produce anything specific as far as the following winter was concerned. November however, did with the enhanced likelihood of a cold winter if the month is very wet.

Computer models have been suggesting for some time that the autumn should be mild generally, with weather in the north and west. The Chinese model is going for an unsettled winter, with the coldest weather in the north. However because of the distance and the fact we do not understand meteorology fully, I simply do not trust computer models however useful they may be.

The noise's I'm currently getting for the remainder of autumn do indeed suggest a mild one. Indeed October may be very mild, with perhaps some further very warm afternoons over much of England and Wales in the first half of the month. It should also continue to be mainly dry particularly in the east and south, but October may become breezier and more unsettled later.

November should be much wetter with rain and gales for a while. The second half will probably see a trend for more northerly outbreaks with frost and some snow possible in the north and east later.

As far as the coming winter is concerned, there are few signs suggesting that the coming winter will be particularly severe, despite an easterly QBO and a developing El Nino which favours a colder winter. As last winter was so mild however, it may feel colder overall but a long, hard, severe winter seems unlikely.

Cold spells, which could occasionally be snowy seem likely early and later in the winter and to this end there could be quite a sharp cold spell perhaps with snowfall before Christmas. These threats of a cold winter should be false however, with perhaps a milder January followed by colder spells again in February and into the early Spring.

23rd September 2014

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012