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30 Day Weather Forecasts from terry Scholey

Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

30 Day Weather Forecast posted twice a month on the 1st and 15th.

Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.


Mid-August to Mid September 2014

General Comments:

Ex tropical storms have a nasty habit of breaking up currently established weather patterns and the remains of "Bertha" have proved no exception. As a result a "re-think" has had to be implemented, with a cooler, more unsettled weather type now established over the British Isles. This has brought a premature end to the excellent summer many places have had to date, but will summer return?

A key day in this type of situation is often around 24th August, but some models are suggesting that any finer interval will not last. What will probably happen is that there will be a Summery, warmer spell around this time followed by showers, perhaps thundery, with August ending a finer, drier note.

The turn of the month can sometimes bring a change of fortune, but probably after a fine start, much of the first week of September could be unsettled especially in the north. The second week although not entirely settled, does offer some promise. I could become warmer and more humid for a time particularly in the east and south, where some heavy showers and storms are possible for a while before it probably turns somewhat cooler and fresher towards mid September. Confidence is medium to high for the remainder of August, but only medium at present for the first half of September.

Summary Breakdown:

August 15th to 22nd: There will be a few mainly dry, brighter day's giving sunny spells, but a mostly unsettled period is expected. Scattered showers some heavy giving local hail and thunder, will be most frequent in the north and east where they could occasionally be prolonged. It will also be blustery at times and with the air generally of polar origin, the north and north east in particular will be cooler than normal. Maximum temperatures should be 14 to 22C, with minimum values mostly in the range of 7 to 14C.

August 23rd to 27th: A finer interval could a few very warm, quite sunny day's. It should gradually become unsettled from the west with showers and some thunderstorms gibing gusty winds. Temperatures could reach 17 to 27C briefly before falling to between 13 and 21C making it cooler later. Minimum temperatures should be mostly in the range 8 to 17C.

August 28th to 31st: Probably a finer, warmer spell to end the month with lengthening sunny spells, as scattered showers at first fade. Winds should be lighter as well, lifting temperatures to between say 17 and 24C. Minimum values should be in the range 8 to 15C.

September 1st to 5th: Is expected to become changeable once more, with the best of the weather mostly in the east and south. Scotland, Ireland, north-west are likely to see occasional rain between drier, brighter intervals, but it should be very mild. There will also be showers elsewhere hut the east and south are likely to see some warm sunny spells. Top temperatures should be 16 to 25C, with mild nights when the thermometer should not fall below 10 to 17C.

September 6th to 10th: Some uncertainty but a very warm, humid interval is possible in the east and south. Most parts could be finer for a few days, before showers move in from the west. These could be heavy giving thunder and gusty winds. Top temperatures 17 to 26C, but maybe a high of 28C in the east and south briefly. Generally very mild nights with minimum temperatures between 11 and 17C.

September 11th to 15th: A few showers at first mostly in the north but become mainly dry with sunny spells. It should feel fresher but nevertheless some pleasantly warm afternoons are expected. By mid-September there may be an increasing threat of showers, probably in the south. Maximum temperatures should be 13 to 22C, with cooler nights when minimum values should be mostly in the range 6 to 14C.

15th August 2014.

August 2014 final update:

General Comments:

While beginning and ending unsettled, August will see further summery spells. Some very hot days are possible between the 9th and 24th, but fine weather may be punctuated by 'hit and miss' heavy showers.

Yet another warmer than average month seems likely particularly in the east and south, where mean average temperatures may be more than two or even three degrees Celsius above normal.

Confidence for the first half is medium to high, but only medium for the second, with a question mark as to whether summery weather after the 9th, will break around the 18th or 23rd. It may also be very humid at times, with wide variations in rainfall, due to storms giving local torrential downpours. The final week may see further locally heavy rains, with a trend to much cooler weather towards month end.


August 1st to 3rd: Becoming unsettled everywhere for a time with showers some locally heavy giving thunder, although mainly dry at first over East Anglia and the South East. Here it will briefly turn somewhat cooler with top temperatures 14 to 19C in the north and west and 21 to 24C in the east and south. Minimum temperatures will be in the range 11 to 17C.

August 4th to 5th: Further showers over Ireland, most of Scotland and in the west, but a brief finer interval elsewhere. Sunny spells could give some very warm even hot afternoons in the east and south, where temperatures could reach 25 to 28C, but 16 to 24C should be a more general maximum. Some humid or very mild nights are expected, with minimum temperatures mostly between 12 and 19C.

August 6th to 8th: Perhaps more generally unsettled once more with occasional rain or showers particularly in the north and west, where it could be quite windy for a time. The east and south may see fewer showers but here, humid conditions at first could 'trigger' some thunderstorms, giving local heavy downpours before it urns somewhat cooler and fresher. Top temperatures 14 to 18C in the north and west, but 20 to 25C in the east and south. Minimum temperatures mostly say 11 to 17C.

August 9th to 18th: Increasingly fine and summery particularly in the east and south. Variable cloud at first though, with particularly north and north east Scotland seeing occasional showers. Elsewhere it should be mainly dry but with increasing humidity over England and Wales. Temperatures could reach 27 to 31C in the east and south later, but 17 to 25C more generally. Minimum temperatures should be 11 to 17C, but 12 to 20C later with some warm 'sticky' nights in the east and south.

August 19th to 21st: Some uncertainty, but probably a 'slack' humid period with a somewhat cooler, fresher trend later mostly over Scotland and Ireland. Before however, this period could see some heavy showers and thunderstorms particularly over England. These may give torrential downpours, but will be 'hit and miss' affairs with still probably a fair amount of fine summer weather Top temperatures perhaps as high as 32C in the hottest spots at first, falling to 16 to 25C. Minimum temperatures say 11 to 18C.

August 2nd to 24th: Perhaps briefly finer, after showers in the east at first. There could be sunny spells especially over Scotland, Ireland and in the west and it should be somewhat fresher especially towards North Sea coasts. Maximum temperatures 17 to 23C, with minimum values around 10 to 16C.

August 25th to 31st: The potential for another humid, thundery spell. This may develop over southern Ireland, before spreading to England and Wales after a few finer, warmer days. There could be some heavy rains, with storms giving a risk of 'flash' flooding, gusty winds and even small tornadoes. Ireland and some other western areas may improve later, as it turns cooler and fresher. Top temperatures 17 to 26C falling to 15 to 2C, with minimum temperatures 11 to 18C but probably 8 to 14C by month end.

31st July 2014

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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Terry Scholey FRMets

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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012